Canadian vote intention
Federal
Last updated: August 16, 2022
This is my estimate of Canadian vote intention based on polls listed on Wikipedia. The predictions for voting intention assume that the polling errors are the same both pre- and post- 2021 election. That may or may not be true, but I suspect that polling errors are correlated between these periods.
Using polls up to and including August 16, 2022, the CPC is ahead. Estimated vote intention for August 16th was:
| Party | Vote share | 95% bounds |
|---|---|---|
| LPC | 32.2% | (29.5%, 35.1%) |
| CPC | 34.4% | (32.0%, 38.1%) |
| NDP | 17.6% | (15.7%, 19.6%) |
| BQ | 7.8% | (6.0%, 8.8%) |
| GPC | 3.4% | (2.5%, 4.6%) |
| PPC | 3.3% | (1.3%, 5.0%) |
| Other | 1.4% | (0.8%, 2.1%) |
Ontario vote intention
Last updated: August 16, 2022
A few months ago, Ontario held a provincial election. Altough no election will be held for 4 years, below is my estimate of Ontario vote intention based on polls listed on Wikipedia. Because there are fewer polls here than at the federal level, the underlying vote intentional is much more impercise. Nonetheless, we can see the PCs are well in the lead.
| Party | Vote share | 95% bounds |
|---|---|---|
| CPC | 41.6% | (32.6%, 50.7%) |
| NDP | 24.9% | (22.0%, 32.4%) |
| Liberal | 20.1% | (24.8%, 31.7%) |
| Green | 6.7% | (4.5%, 10.5) |
| Other | 5.8% | (3.9%, 7.6%) |
Credit where credit is due
Nothing in these models is original, and I owe a debt to others who have done this before me. In particular, the following models were helpful:
Bailey, J. (2021). britpol v0.1.0: User Guide and Data Codebook. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/2M9GB.
Economist (2020.) Forecasting the US elections. Retrieved from https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president.
Ellis, P. (2019). ozfedelect R package. Retrieved from https://github.com/ellisp/ozfedelect.
Savage, J.(2016). Trump for President? Aggregating National Polling Data. Retrieved from https://khakieconomics.github.io/2016/09/06/aggregating-polls-with-gaussian-Processes.html.
INWT Statistics GmbH (2021). Election forecast. Retrieved from https://github.com/INWTlab/lsTerm-election-forecast.